Migration Watch UK
Updated 23 March, 2016
1. Projected Population Growth
Projected Population Growth by Country
| (Millions) | 2014 | 2019 | 2024 | 2029 | 2034 | 2039 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 54.3 | 56.7 | 59.1 | 61.3 | 62.9 | 65.2 |
| Wales | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Scotland | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| N. Ireland | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| United Kingdom | 64.6 | 67.8 | 69.9 | 72.4 | 74.7 | 76.8 |
Source: ONS, 2014-based National Population Projections, ‘high’ net migration variant
National Population Projections (29/10/2015)
The ‘high’ net migration variant projection has a long term assumption that net migration will be 265,000 a year. Under this scenario the UK population is expected to reach 70 million by 2025.
2. Population Density
England, not the UK, is the second most crowded country in the European Union, excluding the island state of Malta. England is the ninth most crowded country in the world when city and island states are excluded.
| Area sq/km | Population | Pop'n Density per sq/km | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 130,170 | 159,078,000 | 1,222 |
| Taiwan | 36,193 | 23,434,000 | 647 |
| South Korea | 97,466 | 50,420,000 | 517 |
| Netherlands | 33,670 | 16,854,000 | 501 |
| Rwanda | 24,670 | 11,342,000 | 460 |
| Lebanon | 10,230 | 4,547,000 | 444 |
| India | 2,973,190 | 1,295,292,000 | 436 |
| Burundi | 25,680 | 10,817,000 | 421 |
| England | 130,279 | 54,317,000 | 417 |
| Haiti | 27,560 | 10,572,000 | 384 |
| Israel | 21,640 | 8,215,000 | 380 |
| Belgium | 30,280 | 11,225,000 | 371 |
| Japan | 364,560 | 127,131,800 | 349 |
| Philippines | 298,170 | 99,139,000 | 332 |
| China | 9,388,211 | 1,364,270,000 | 145 |
| UK | 242,509 | 64,510,000 | 266 |
| Germany | 348,540 | 80,890,000 | 232 |
| France | 547,557 | 66,207,000 | 121 |
| Spain | 500,210 | 46,405,000 | 93 |
The population density of England is projected to be 484 persons per square kilometre in 2039, when the population will reach 63.3 million.
Source: The table above is based on data for 2014. All data except Taiwan and UK from World Bank. Taiwan based on data from MOI Statistical Information Service. and http://countryeconomy.com/demography/population/taiwan, accessed January 7, 2016. Population figures for England and UK data based on ONS statistical bulletin on ‘Population Projections of the UK’, October 2015, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_420462.pdf and land area based on ONS, ‘Key Statistics and Profiles’, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-325257
3. Births to foreign parents
In 2014 over a quarter (27%) of all births in England and Wales were to mothers born outside the United Kingdom.
In London in 2014, the figure was 58.1%. In the London Boroughs of Newham, Brent, Ealing, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea over 70% of births are to mothers born outside the UK.
A Parliamentary answer revealed that two thirds of all births in London were to couples where one or both were born outside the UK.
Source: ONS, Births in England and Eales in 2014 by parents’ country of birth, August 2015, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/parents--country-of-birth--england-and-wales/2014/rft-pcb-14.xls
Nicholas Soames, HC Deb, 17 October 2014, cW, URL: http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2014-10-15/210759/
4. Foreign born population of the UK
UK Population born overseas:
| 1991 | 5.8% |
| 2014 | 13% or 8.3 million people |
Source: ONS, Estimated Population by Country of Birth and Nationality January 2014 to December 2014 (1.14 Mb Excel sheet), Table 1.1, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/population-by-country-of-birth-and-nationality/2014/rft-table-5-pop-by-cob-jan-14-to-dec-14.xls
5. Latest Immigration Statistics (Year Ending June 2015)
| Total | British | EU | A8 | Non-EU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflow | 636,000 | 85,000 | 265,000 | 73,000 | 286,000 |
| Outflow | 300,000 | 130,000 | 85,000 | 29,000 | 85,000 |
| Net | 336,000 | -45,000 | 180,000 | 44,000 | 201,000 |
In the year ending June 2015 net migration from the EU was 180,000, or 47.2% of the total non-British net migration (381,000).
| 1997 – 2014 Total Net Migration | 3.7 million |
| Comprising Non-British Net Migration | 4.60 million |
| And British Net Migration | -1.22 million |
Source: ONS Long Term International Migration, Year ending June 2015, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/november-2015/rft-table-1.xls
ONS Long Term International Migration, UK 1991-2014. Table 2.01a LTIM Citizenship 1991-2014, URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/long-term-international-migration/2014/table-2-01a.xls
6. Jobs
Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.8 million to over 5 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 771,000.
There are currently 2.1 million EU born workers in Britain, 982,000 of whom come from the A8 countries of East Europe. The number of British workers in the EU was estimated in 2011 to be 407,000.
Only 41.5% of the 5 million non-UK born workers were born in the EU, most are originally from outside the EU.
Source: ONS, Employment Levels by country of birth and nationality, Updated Nov 2015 URL: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/december-2015/table-emp06.xls, Migration Watch UK, The British in Europe, URL: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/4.21
7. Housing
Between 2000 and 2014 an additional 2.3 million households were formed in the UK. 1.5 million (66%) of these had a foreign born Household Reference Person.
Source: ONS, Change in the number of households by country of birth of the Household Reference Person, 29 June 2015, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/business-transparency/freedom-of-information/what-can-i-request/published-ad-hoc-data/pop/june-2015/index.html
Government household projections show that England will need to build enough housing to accommodate an additional 237,000 households per year or a total of 5.9 million homes between 2012 and 2037. 2.3 million or 40% of this projected household requirement would be as a result of future immigration.
That means that the additional housing demand caused by immigration can only be satisifed by building over 260 extra homes every day, or one every six minutes for the 25 year period.
Source: DCLG, ‘high’ (225K) and ‘zero’ net migration Household Projections, 2012-2037, England, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/481704/2012-based_household_projections_England_2012_to_2037_Stage_2_household_types_and_national_variants.pdf
8. Education
According to estimates by the Department of Education from July 2014, the number of pupils in state funded primary schools in England is expected to increase to 4.7 million by 2023, a rise of almost ten per cent. Rising pupil numbers are already creating significant shortages of school places in parts of the country.
Figures for January 2015 showed that almost one in five children in state-funded primary schools did not speak English as a first language and 15 per cent of state- funded secondary school pupils did not speak English as a first language.
The Department of Education also calculated in June 2015 that 56 per cent of primary school pupils in Inner London speak a first language other than English, while in outer London, the figure was 45 per cent.
Sources: Department of Education, National Pupil Projections, April 2015, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/330261/SFR23_2014_Main_Text.pdf
Department for Education, Schools, pupils and their characteristics, January 2015, Table 5a Number and Percentage of Pupils by First Language, URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/433685/SFR16_2015_national_tables.xlsx
Department of Education, Percentage of pupils by first language, borough, June 2015, URL: http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/percentage-pupils-first-language-borough/resource/9cb56095-608e-478f-bd74-66bf00fe1408
9. Public Opinion
(For a full analysis see: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/249)
Six out of ten people put immigration and asylum in the top three troubles facing the country, according to a Times/YouGov poll reported in January 2016.
URL: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4653828.ece
60% of first and second generation immigrants said they feel that migration to the UK should be reduced, NatCen Social Research’s British Social Attitudes survey 2013.
URL: http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/205569/immigration-bsa31.pdf
75% thought the level of immigration into Britain in the last ten years had been too high, YouGov poll from February 2015.
URL: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/02/why-we-like-migrants-not-immigration/
95% of Britons believed new immigrants should speak English, a NatCen social research survey found in June 2015.
URL: http://www.channel4.com/news/immigration-social-attitudes-natcen-ukip-survey
77% want to see a reduction of immigration into Britain, British Social Attitudes Survey Jan 2014.
78% support the government’s aim to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, including 70% of those who voted Liberal Democrat in the 2010 General Election, YouGov for The Sunday Times, January 2012
68% believe that immigration has a negative effect on Britain, YouGov for The Sunday Times, January 2012
66% believe that immigration has had a negative impact on the availability of jobs, Ipsos Mori for British Future, January 2012.
86% support changing the rules on benefits so that benefits are only available to people who have been resident in Britain for a fixed amount of time, such as a year, Sunday Times YouGov Poll, March 2013.
75% support changing NHS rules so non-emergency treatment is only available to people who have been resident in Britain for a fixed period, such as a year, Sunday Times YouGov Poll, March 2013.
88% believe that immigrants who are unable to speak English or unwilling to integrate have created ‘discomfort and disjointedness’ in British communities, YouGov for The Sunday Times, April 2011.
72% disagreed that an amnesty should be granted to illegal immigrants in Britain, YouGov for Migration Watch UK, June 2006. 12% believe that immigration had changed their local community for the better, 88% disagreed. Searchlight Educational Trust, February 2011, URL: http://www.fearandhope.org.uk/project-report/themes