150 more trades being opened to global recruitment as unemployment rises

1 October, 2020

Introduction

1. The government have announced that the qualifications required for foreign workers to come to the UK will be reduced from degree level to “A” level when their new immigration system is introduced on 1 January 2021.

2. Furthermore, there will be no limit on the numbers that employers can recruit from overseas and the present requirement that job opportunities should first be advertised in the UK will be abolished.

3. This paper sets out the list of 150 trades and professions that are now to be exposed to global recruitment by the changes (Annex D, p.8), in addition to nearly 100 occupations that will face greater competition from overseas due to the annual cap on numbers being abandoned (Annex C below, p.5).

The impact of the new system

4. The current Tier 2 (General) system uses a combination of the skill level of the occupation and salary to select skilled migrants.

5. Planned immigration changes will open up the system at a time of economic crisis to allow three million UK full-time jobs in 150 extra middle-pay occupations to be filled directly via non-UK recruitment - provided the worker earns above £25,600, or above £20,400 if they are below the age of 26 or if job categories are on a Shortage Occupation List (see Home Office document, p.26).

6. Currently there are nearly 40 occupations on the shortage occupation list, either at a UK-wide or Devolved Nation level but the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has recently recommended increasing this significantly so that around 70 entire occupations, or job titles within them, are included on it.

7. The additional jobs being opened up include butchers, bakers, bricklayers, plumbers, electricians and tailors. Such jobs are being exposed to unlimited global recruitment even as joblessness spikes and lay-offs are announced.

8. This is despite the potential displacement of UK workers that high levels of immigration could lead to, especially in a period of downturn. For example, the MAC found in 2012 that 100 extra non-EU migrants (1995-2010) displaced 23 UK-born workers and that this was particularly likely to occur in periods of economic downturn. Sectors more likely to experience displacement included: information and communications; human health and social work; professional, scientific and technical; finance and insurance.^[1]

9. The UK government should learn the lesson of the previous economic crisis; it took six years for the number of UK-born workers to regain its pre-crash level, while the number of workers born abroad increased by more than a million as employers sought out cheaper labour.

10. Unlike during the previous crisis from 2011, there will be no cap work permits in effect, nor will the resident labour market test (also known as the ‘First Chance Rule’) be there to help mitigate possible displacement.

11. Significantly lower salary thresholds than currently, applied to applicants from 80% of the world’s countries, alongside the opening up of 150 previously protected job categories to direct global recruitment, will also mean UK workers being exposed to a greater risk of undercutting - something the MAC previously identified as happening with regard to the hiring of non-UK nurses who it said were used by the NHS to save costs.

12. The risks may be even more serious now. In mid-September it was revealed that the UK unemployment rate has risen to its highest level for two years. Young people were particularly hard hit, with those aged 16 to 24 suffering the biggest drop in employment compared with other age groups (see media report^[2]).

13. In addition to three million mid-skilled roles, around four million graduate-level jobs (in nearly 100 occupation categories such as electronics engineers, IT specialist managers, social workers, journalists, academic researchers and public relations directors - Annex C, p.5 below) are to be exposed to the prospect of greater global recruitment due to removal of the work permit cap (our piece on this calculation).

14. Nurses and doctors were already removed from this cap in July 2018, despite a warning from the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) that the health sector was relying on overseas workers as a ‘get out of jail free card’ while they also pointed (see p.32 of link) to ‘the need to raise British human capital and… lessen employer dependence on immigration’ e.g. in key sectors such as health and I.T.

15. Our estimate, using cautious assumptions and based on a range of data sources, is that the global pool of eligible recruits for jobs being made eligible for Tier 2 (General) work permits under the changes comprise well over 600 million people.^[3]

16. Employers will be able to hire recruits from among this pool using Tier 2 (General) visas into a total of 250 occupations without having first to advertise the vacancy locally - provided that the salary meets the required threshold and provided the applicant meets other criteria (e.g. English language ability).

17. For a timeline of changes with regard to the main work permit route since 2005, see Annex A below. Annex B on page 4 below lists the nearly 100 occupations being opened up to greater competition. Annex C on page 7 below lists 150 middle-skilled occupations that are being opened up.

1 October 2020

Annex A: Timeline of government actions with regard to skilled work permits.

2005 - Labour Party promises a points-based immigration system in its election manifesto.

2008 (27 November) Tier 2 General work permit introduced. It is a pure points-based system with no limits for skilled migrants with a job offer. Salary thresholds are between £20,000 and £28,000. Until 2011, those with jobs qualified to A-Level (RQF Level 3 and above) could apply.

2010 - Conservatives form government with Liberal Democrats and interim limit placed on number of Tier 2 (General) visas issued each year.

2011 (April) Permanent annual cap on work permits introduced and the skills threshold for Tier 2 (General) work permits is increased from RQF3 to RQF4.

2012 (June) The Tier 2 (General) skill level is raised again from RQF4 to RQF6 (graduate level).

2018 (September) Migration Advisory Committee proposes lowering skills threshold from RQF6 and above to RQF3 and above and removing annual cap.

2018 (December) Theresa May’s government accepts these recommendations but with a general salary threshold of £30,000 per year.

2020 (January) Migration Advisory Committee says that diluting the skills threshold from RQF6 to RQF3 and above would allow for a further 150 medium-skilled occupations (RQF3-5) to qualify under the route. It recommends both doing this and exposing a number of lower-skilled occupations such as child-minder and teaching assistant to direct global recruitment.

2020 (February) - The government releases a plan to go even further in liberalising the system than envisaged by the previous government - proposing a points-based system (against MAC advice) that includes a general salary threshold of £25,600 but which would be as low as £20,400 for new entrants and those going into shortage occupations. The cap on work permits is set to be abolished as is the Resident Labour Market Test.

2020 (September) The MAC recommends that MAC has recommends that the Shortage Occupation List is expanded to cover 14% of total employment - up from the current 9%.

Annex B: The Shortage Occupation List

According the Migration Advisory Committee, the Shortage Occupation List (SOL) ‘shows which occupations, amongst those eligible for the Skilled Worker route, are in “shortage” i.e. where employers find it problematic to secure adequate numbers of workers with the required skills to fill their vacancies and where we judge that migration is a sensible response to that shortage’.

Currently jobs in just under 40 occupations are on the SOL (covering about 9% of total employment - or 2.5 million workers) - although the MAC has recommended that this be expanded to cover jobs in a total of 70 occupations (covering about 14% of total employment, or just under 4 million workers).

Under the current system - which includes an annual cap and Resident Labour Market Test - if a job is on the SOL^[4] it has benefited in the following ways:

1. It is not subject to the resident labour market test
2. It is prioritised if the Tier 2 (General) limit of 20,700 was reached
3. There was no requirement to meet the £35,800 salary threshold required for settlement after five years.
4. Applicants (and their families) face lower visa application fees if their occupation is on the SOL.

However, the new immigration system will include an element of tradeable points, where any occupation on the SOL will be allocated 20 tradeable points; this effectively reduces the relevant salary thresholds by 20 per cent.

So if an applicant has a job offer in a specific shortage occupation they may be able to earn less than the required minimum salary threshold, but no less than £20,480.

As the MAC has stated: “This 20 per cent reduction in salary thresholds fundamentally alters the nature of the SOL. In the new system the RLMT will be removed and the cap suspended, so the key benefit to being on the SOL becomes lower salary thresholds.”

If an occupation is already listed on the SOL, it is annotated below with the letters = SOL. If the occupation is of those which the MAC recommended adding to the list on 29 September, it specifically noted below.

Annex C: Jobs skilled to NQF Level 6 or above

98 occupations already open to recruitment via Tier 2 (General) are listed below. See Appendix J of immigration rules^[5] and Annex E of Home Office document (August 2020).^[6] All occupation names are followed by the 4-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code.

1. Chemical scientists (2111)
2. Biological scientists and biochemists (2112) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
3. Physical scientists (2113) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
4. Social and humanities scientists (2114) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
5. Natural and social science professionals not elsewhere classified (2119) - For Skilled Worker purposes, this includes researchers in research organisations other than universities.
6. Research and development managers (2150)
7. Higher education teaching professionals (2311)
8. Chief executives and senior officials (1115)
9. Production managers and directors in manufacturing (1121)
10. Production managers and directors in construction (1122)
11. Production managers and directors in mining and energy (1123)
12. Financial managers and directors (1131)
13. Marketing and sales directors (1132)
14. Purchasing managers and directors (1133)
15. Advertising and public relations directors (1134)
16. Human resource managers and directors (1135)
17. Information technology and telecommunications directors (1136)
18. Functional managers and directors not elsewhere classified (1139)
19. Financial institution managers and directors (1150)
20. Managers and directors in transport and distribution (1161)
21. Senior police officers (1172)
22. Senior officers in fire, ambulance, prison and related services (1173)
23. Health services and public health managers and directors (1181) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September).
24. Social services managers and directors (1184)
25. Civil engineers (2121) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
26. Mechanical engineers (2122) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
27. Electrical engineers (2123) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
28. Electronics engineers (2124) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
29. Design and development engineers (2126) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
30. Production and process engineers (2127) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
31. Engineering professionals not elsewhere classified (2129) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
32. IT specialist managers (2133)
33. IT project and programme managers (2134)
34. IT business analysts, architects and systems designers (2135) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
35. Programmers and software development professionals (2136) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
36. Web design and development professionals (2137) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
37. Information technology and telecommunications professionals not elsewhere classified (2139) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
38. Conservation professionals (2141)
39. Environment professionals (2142)
40. Medical practitioners (2211) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
41. Psychologists (2212) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
42. Pharmacists (2213) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
43. Ophthalmic opticians (2214)
44. Dental practitioner (2215)
45. Veterinarians (2216) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
46. Medical radiographers (2217) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
47. Podiatrists (2218)
48. Health professionals not elsewhere classified (2219)
49. Physiotherapists (2221) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
50. Occupational therapists (2222) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
51. Speech and language therapists (2223) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
52. Therapy professionals not elsewhere classified (2229)
53. Nurses (2231) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
54. Midwives (2232)
55. Further education teaching professionals (2312)
56. Secondary education teaching professionals (2314) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
    1. Secondary education and teaching professionals – modern foreign language teachers only (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
57. Primary and nursery education teaching professionals (2315)
58. Special needs education teaching professionals (2316)
59. Senior professionals of educational establishments (2317)
60. Education advisers and school inspectors (2318)
61. Teaching and other educational professionals not elsewhere classified (2319)
62. Barristers and judges (2412)
63. Solicitors (2413)
64. Legal professionals not elsewhere classified (2419)
65. Chartered and certified accountants (2421)
66. Management consultants and business analysts (2423)
67. Business and financial project management professionals (2424)
68. Actuaries, economists and statisticians (2425) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
69. Business and related research professionals (2426)
70. Business, research and administrative professionals not elsewhere classified (2429)
71. Architects (2431) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
72. Town planning officers (2432)
73. Quantity surveyors (2433) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
74. Chartered surveyors (2434)
75. Chartered architectural technologists (2435)
76. Construction project managers and related professionals (2436)
77. Social workers (2442) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
78. Probation officers (2443)
79. Welfare professionals not elsewhere classified (2449)
80. Librarians (2451)
81. Archivists and curators (2452)
82. Quality control and planning engineers (2461) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
83. Quality assurance and regulatory professionals (2462)
84. Environmental health professionals (2463)
85. Journalists, newspaper and periodical editors (2471)
86. Public relations professionals (2472)
87. Advertising accounts managers and creative directors (2473)
88. Paramedics (3213) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
89. Artists (3411) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
90. Dancers and choreographers (3414) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
91. Musicians (3415) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
92. Arts officers, producers and directors (3416) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
93. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers (3512)
94. Brokers (3532)
95. Finance and investment analysts and advisers (3534)
96. Taxation experts (3535)
97. Financial accounts managers (3538)
98. Sales accounts and business development managers (3545)

Annex D

Mid-skilled roles (skilled to NQF3 and 4) being opened to global recruitment up by new immigration system. See Appendix J of immigration rules^[7] and Annex E of Home Office document (August 2020).^[8]

Listed below are 150 occupations set to be opened up by the immigration changes due to come into effect from the start of next year. See Appendix J of immigration rules^[9] and Annex E of Home Office document (August 2020).^[10] All occupation names are followed by the 4-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code.

Mid-skilled jobs (skilled to RQF4)

1. Customer care managers (7220)
2. Office managers (4161)
3. Security managers (3319)
4. Healthcare practice managers (1241)
5. Residential and daycare managers (1242) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
6. Managers in animal husbandry, forestry and fishing (1213)
7. Conference and exhibition managers (3546)
8. Property, housing and land managers (1251)
9. Recycling and refuse disposal managers (1255)
10. Managers and proprietors in other services not elsewhere classified (1259)
11. Architectural technologists and town planning technicians (3121)
12. Building inspectors (3565)
13. IT operations technicians (3131)
14. Medical and dental technicians (3218)
15. Protective service associate professionals not elsewhere classified (3319)
16. Ship and hovercraft officers (3513)
17. Estimators, valuers and assessors (3531)
18. Financial and accounting technicians (3537)
19. Business and related associate professionals not elsewhere classified (3539)
20. Buyers and purchasing officers (3541)
21. Marketing associate professionals (3543)
22. Conservation and environmental protection officers
23. Public service associate professionals (3561)
24. Careers advisers and vocational guidance specialists (3564)
25. Occupational hygienists and safety offices (health and safety) (3567)
26. Authors, writers and translators (3412)
27. Actors, entertainers and presenters (3413)
28. Planning, process and production technicians (3116)
29. Product, clothing and related designers (3422)
30. Vocational and industrial trainers and instructors (3563)
31. Health associate professionals not elsewhere classified (3219)

Mid-skilled jobs (skilled to RQF3)

32. Senior care workers (6146) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
    • Senior care assistant
    • Senior carer
    • Senior support worker (Local government: welfare services)
    • Team leader (nursing home)
33. Managers and directors in storage and warehousing (1162)
34. Managers and directors in retail and wholesale (1190)
35. Hotel and accommodation managers and proprietors (1221)
36. Restaurant and catering establishment managers and proprietors (1223)
    • Café owner
    • Fish & chip shopkeeper
    • Operations manager (catering)
    • Restaurant manager
    • Shop manager (take-away food shop
37. Publicans and managers of licensed premises (1124)
    • Landlady (public house)
    • Licensee
    • Manager (wine bar)
    • Publican
38. Leisure and sports managers (1225)
39. Travel agency managers and proprietors (1226)
40. Garage managers and proprietors (1252)
41. Hairdressing and beauty salon managers and proprietors (1253)
42. Shopkeepers and proprietors - wholesale and retail (1254)
43. Laboratory technicians (3111)
44. Electrical and electronics technicians (3112)
45. Engineering technicians (3113)
46. Building and civil engineering technicians (3114)
47. Quality assurance technicians (3115)
48. Draughtspersons (3122)
49. IT user support technicians (3132)
    • Customer support analyst
    • Help desk operator
    • IT support technician
    • Systems support officer
50. Dispensing opticians (3216)
51. Pharmaceutical technicians (3217)
    • Dispensing technician
    • Pharmaceutical technician
    • Pharmacy technician
52. Youth and community workers (3231)
53. Housing officers (3234)
54. Counsellors (3235)
55. Police officers (sergeant and below) (3312)
56. Fire service officers (watch manager and below) (3313)
57. Photographers, audio-visual and broad-casting equipment operators (3417)
    • Audio visual technician
    • Cameraman
    • Photographer
    • Projectionist
    • Sound engineer
    • Theatre technician (entertainment)
58. Graphic designers (3421) SOL (all jobs in this occupation)
59. Fitness instructors (3443)
60. Air traffic controllers (3511)
61. Legal associate professionals (3520)
62. Insurance underwriters (3533)
63. Importers and exporters (3536)
64. Business sales executives (3542)
65. Estate agents and auctioneers (3544)
66. Conservation and environmental associate professionals (3550)
67. Human resources and industrial relations officers (3562)
68. National government administrative occupations (4112)
69. Officers of non-governmental organisations (4114)
70. Transport and distribution clerks and assistants (4134)
71. Sales administrators (4151)
72. Company secretaries (4214)
73. Personal assistants and other secretaries (4215)
74. Farmers (5111)
75. Agricultural contractor
76. Agricultural technician
77. Crofter (farming)
78. Farmer
79. Herd manager
80. Horticultural trades (5112)
    • Grower
    • Horticulturalist (market gardening)
    • Market Gardener
    • Nursery Assistant (agriculture)
    • Nurseryman
81. Gardeners and landscape gardeners (5113)
    • Garden designer
    • Gardener
    • Gardener-handyman
    • Landscape gardener
82. Groundsmen and greenkeepers (5114)
    • Greenkeeper
    • Groundsman
    • Groundsperson
83. Agricultural and fishing trades not elsewhere classified (5119)
    • Aboricultural consultant
    • Bee farmer
    • Gamekeeper
    • Share fisherman
    • Trawler skipper
    • Tree surgeon
84. Smiths and forge workers (5211)
85. Moulders, core makers and die casters (5212)
    • Core Maker (metal trades)
    • Die Caster
    • Moulder (metal trades)
    • Pipe Maker (foundry)
86. Sheet metal workers (5213)
87. Metal plate workers, and riveters (5214)
    • Boiler maker
    • Metal plate worker
    • Plater
    • Plater-welder
88. Welding trades (5215) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
    • Fabricator-welder
    • Fitter-welder
    • Spot welder (metal)
    • Welder
    • Welding technician
89. Pipe fitters (5216)
    • Pipe engineer
    • Pipe fitter
    • Pipe welder-fitter
90. Metal machining setters and setter-operators (5221)
    • CNC machinist
    • CNC programmer
    • Centre lathe turner
    • Miller (metal trades)
    • Tool setter
    • Turner
91. Tool makers, tool fitters and markers-out (5222)
92. Metal working production and maintenance fitters (5223)
    • Agricultural engineer
    • Bench fitter
    • Engineering machinist
    • Fabricator
    • Installation engineer
    • Maintenance fitter
    • Mechanical engineer
93. Precision instrument makers and repairers (5224)
94. Vehicle technicians, mechanics and electricians (5231)
95. Vehicle body builders and repairers (5232)
96. Vehicle paint technicians (5234)
97. Aircraft maintenance and related trades (5235)
    • Aeronautical engineer
    • Aircraft electrician
    • Aircraft engineer
    • Aircraft fitter
    • Aircraft mechanic
    • Maintenance engineer (aircraft)
98. Roofers, roof tilers and slaters (5313)
99. Boat and ship builders and repairers (5236)
    • Boat builder
    • Fitter (boat building)
    • Frame turner (ship building)
    • Marine engineer
    • Ship’s joiner
    • Shipwright
100. Electricians and electrical fitters (5241)
     • Electrical contractor
     • Electrical engineer
     • Electrical fitter
     • Electrician
101. Tele-communications engineers (5242)
102. TV, video and audio engineers (5244)
103. IT engineers (5245)
104. Electrical and electrics trades not elsewhere classified (5249)
     • Alarm engineer
     • Electronics engineer
     • Field engineer
     • Linesman
     • Service engineer
105. Steel erectors (5311)
106. Bricklayers and masons (5312) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
     • Bricklayer
     • Dry stone waller
     • Stone mason
107. Plumbers and heating and ventilating engineers (5314)
108. Construction and building trades not elsewhere classified (5319)
109. Weavers and knitters (5411)
110. Upholsterers (5412)
111. Footwear and leather working trades (5413)
112. Tailors and dress-makers (5414)
• Cutter (hosiery, knitwear mfr)
• Dressmaker
• Fabric cutter
• Tailor
• Tailoress
113. Textiles, garments and related trades not elsewhere classified (5419)
     • Clothing manufacturer
     • Embroiderer
     • Hand sewer
     • Sail maker
     • Upholstery cutter
114. Pre-press technicians (5421)
115. Printers (5422)
116. Print finishing and binding workers (5423)
117. Butchers (5431) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
118. Bakers and flour confectioners (5432)
119. Fish-mongers and poultry dressers (5433)
120. Chefs (5434) SOL (certain jobs in this occupation)
     • Chef
     • Chef-manager
     • Head chef
     • Pastry chef
121. Catering and bar managers (5436)
     • Bar manager
     • Catering manager
     • Floor manager (restaurant)
     • Kitchen manager
     • Steward (club)
122. Glass and ceramics makers, decorators and finishers (5441)
123. Furniture makers and other craft woodworkers (5442)
124. Florists (5443)
     • Floral assistant
     • Floral designer
     • Florist
     • Flower arranger
125. Other skilled trades not elsewhere classified.
126. Nursery nurses and assistants (6121)
     • Crèche assistant
     • Crèche worker
     • Nursery assistant
     • Nursery nurse
127. Play-workers (6123)
128. Veterinary nurses (6131)
129. Animal care services (6139)
• Animal technician
• Canine beautician
• Groom
• Kennel assistant
• Kennel maid
• Stable hand
130. Nursing auxiliaries and assistants (6141) (MAC recommends adding to SOL on 29 September)
     • Auxiliary nurse
     • Health care assistant (hospital service)
     • Health care support worker
     • Nursing assistant
     • Nursing auxiliary
131. Dental nurses (6143)
     • Dental nurse
     • Dental nurse-receptionist
     • Dental surgery assistant
132. Houseparents and residential wardens (6144)
133. Air travel assistants (6214)
134. Rail travel assistants (6215)
135. Merchandisers and window dressers (7125)
136. Sales supervisors (7130)
137. Market research interviewers (7215)
138. Energy plant operatives (8124)
139. Water and sewerage plant operatives (8126)
140. Driving instructors (3565)
141. Marine and waterways transport operatives (8232)

Additional ‘lower-skilled’ roles to be opened to global recruitment following MAC recommendation 24 (p.269)^[11] (accepted by government):

137. Air-conditioning and refrigeration engineers (5225)
138. Rail and rolling stock builders and repairers (5237)
139. Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades supervisors (5250)
140. Carpenters and joiners (5315)
141. Glaziers, window fabricators and fitters (5316)
142. Plasterers (5321)
143. Floorers and wall tilers (5322)
144. Painters and decorators (5323)
145. Construction and building trades supervisors (5330)
146. Childminders and related occupations (6122)
147. Teaching assistants (6125)
148. Educational support assistants (6126)
149. Science, engineering, production technicians not elsewhere classified (3119)
150. Welfare and housing associate professionals not elsewhere classified (3239)

Additional jobs recommended by the MAC on 29 September 2020:

151. Fishing and other elementary agriculture occupations not elsewhere classified (9119)
     • Vent chick sexers
     • Deckhands on large fishing vessels (nine meters or above).